Market analysis
Dated public calls since 2008, worked from the board numbers, including the November I said 6,500 and the answer came back 7,374.
All capabilitiesI have been writing it since 2008, all timestamped and all of it checkable.
I work from primary sources — board statistics and CMHC data — not from other people's summaries. And when I called something wrong I published the miss with the reasoning, because a record that only contains the good calls is not a record.
Specifically.
- 01
Reading the data, not the headlines
In February 2019 the market was reported as a seller's market on the citywide ratio. I pointed out that above $1,000,000 it was balanced or favouring buyers depending on location, so the average was describing nobody's actual transaction.
- 02
Calling turns early
I called the post-lockdown demand surge as it happened in mid-2020 and named the mechanism. In 2019 I identified international migration as the load-bearing support under demand, before that became the standard explanation.
- 03
Connecting macro to local
In April 2025 I tied US tariff policy and an incoming federal election to a stalled Toronto spring market and a build-up in inventory. That connection is not one most residential brokers were making.
- 04
Publishing the misses
In December 2017 I forecast 6,500 November sales. The actual figure was 7,374. I published the miss, explained the cause, and forecast the pull-forward would continue.
- Writing the monthly letter since 2008; the archive reproduced on this site runs from 2016 to the present, every entry dated
- Primary sources: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, CMHC, Royal LePage
- Quoted as the listing agent in The Globe and Mail's Done Deals column — 174 Oakwood Avenue, listed at $233,000, sold at $355,000 in ten days against 49 bids
Happy to go deeper.
Any of this stands up to questions. That is rather the point of writing it down.